Home Builders' Confidence Falls
Home builder confidence fell for the third straight month in May and executives in the battered sector now believe they'll have to wait until next year for even a sluggish recovery to begin.
According to a survey by the National Association of Home Builders, the confidence index sank to 30 in May from 33 in April, matching the September reading that had been a 15-year low at that time. The subindex measuring builders' view of current market conditions fell to the lowest level since February 1991, while their view of the market six months from now and their perception of buyer demand both dropped to match the 15-year lows hit in late 2006.
The association is now projecting that home sales and housing production will not begin improving untl late this year, and they are expecting the early stages of the subsequent recovery to be sluggish.
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Speed of Subprime Bust Surprising Lenders
The subprime mortgage meltdown has been a shock to industry insiders, but now they say it's hitting harder and faster than expected - even to those who predicted the crisis in the first place. Many would-be homebuyers are now finding they can no longer qualify for a mortgae due to stricter standards.
Speaking recently at a Mortgage Bankers Assoication Market Conference, David Lowman, a panelist and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s global mortgage business said, "Anything that smacks of no-income and no-documentation is history…Anything above 85 percent to 90 percent loan-to-value, anything non-owner occupied, anything ludicrous as to value - like someone stepping up from a $1,000 a month payment to a $6,000 a month - is history."
Investors who buy and sell bonds backed by the mortgage payments of ordinary homeowners have seen bad loans rise and have told lenders and brokers they will no longer buy whole classes of securitized mortgages, which can quickly pull the plug on a prospective home buyer.
All the fudging, the lax underwriting, the push for loans that went on during the housing boom were facilitated by the rapid rise of home prices. Outsized increases in home equity in many U.S. housing markets covered a multitude of sins and encouraged lenders to extend loans to poor risk borrowers. That day has come and gone, but according to several analysts at the MBA, despite their surprise at the speed and depth of the subprime meltdown, many expect a quicker recovery than all the gloom and doom that is being broadcast everywhere.
The group cites a strong economy, low unemployment, and favorable demographic growth for their optimistic stance, that recovery will soon come.
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It's common knowledge that the first thing prospective buyers see when they arrive at your home may be the most important factor in determining whether they even bother walking in the door. It's known as curb appeal.
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